Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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The Andersons, Inc. (ANDE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food DistributionSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$66.94 - $270.99$114.50
Multi-Stage$42.14 - $46.05$44.06
Blended Fair Value$79.28
Current Price$39.81
Upside99.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.50%7.72%0.800.770.750.720.700.670.570.550.530.49
YoY Growth--3.55%3.10%3.63%3.23%4.01%18.67%2.68%4.55%9.05%27.52%
Dividend Yield--1.87%1.37%1.82%1.44%2.56%3.60%1.75%1.67%1.40%1.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)73.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)46.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.679.175.50
Cash Retained (M)46.6746.6746.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.67-9.17-5.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.9937.5041.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)32.7932.7932.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.981.141.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.810.810.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.981.141.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.791.962.07
WACC / Discount Rate8.32%8.32%8.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$66.94$114.50$270.99
Upside / Downside68.15%187.61%580.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)73.3778.1483.2288.6394.39100.52103.54
Payout Ratio36.39%47.11%57.84%68.56%79.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.7036.8148.1360.7674.8390.4795.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.32%8.32%8.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)33.6733.9934.31
Year 2 PV (M)40.2541.0241.79
Year 3 PV (M)46.4747.8149.16
Year 4 PV (M)52.3454.3556.42
Year 5 PV (M)57.8760.6763.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,151.321,206.931,264.67
Equity Value (M)1,381.921,444.761,509.92
Shares Outstanding (M)32.7932.7932.79
Fair Value$42.14$44.06$46.05
Upside / Downside5.86%10.67%15.67%

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