Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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American National Bankshares Inc. (AMNB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$79.33 - $395.60$141.70
Multi-Stage$48.89 - $53.40$51.10
Blended Fair Value$96.40
Current Price$48.75
Upside97.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS7.95%5.81%1.201.141.111.111.030.820.790.780.760.68
YoY Growth--5.03%2.68%-0.13%8.00%26.01%3.79%1.43%2.45%11.48%-0.15%
Dividend Yield--2.46%3.60%2.95%3.37%4.32%2.35%2.10%2.09%3.00%3.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)26.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.233.271.96
Cash Retained (M)13.4113.4113.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.23-3.27-1.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.1710.1411.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10.6310.6310.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.770.951.08
LTM Dividend per Share1.201.201.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.770.951.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.972.152.28
WACC / Discount Rate8.12%8.12%8.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$79.33$141.70$395.60
Upside / Downside62.72%190.66%711.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)26.1627.8629.6731.6033.6535.8436.92
Payout Ratio48.76%57.01%65.25%73.50%81.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.7615.8819.3623.2327.5132.2634.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.12%8.12%8.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)14.5514.6914.83
Year 2 PV (M)16.2516.5616.88
Year 3 PV (M)17.8618.3818.90
Year 4 PV (M)19.3920.1320.90
Year 5 PV (M)20.8321.8322.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)430.74451.55473.15
Equity Value (M)519.63543.15567.53
Shares Outstanding (M)10.6310.6310.63
Fair Value$48.89$51.10$53.40
Upside / Downside0.29%4.83%9.53%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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