Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Amgen Inc. (AMGN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$408.07 - $1,953.71$723.19
Multi-Stage$304.84 - $333.14$318.73
Blended Fair Value$520.96
Current Price$282.20
Upside84.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.61%10.07%8.928.417.757.416.936.486.486.215.544.42
YoY Growth--6.06%8.58%4.56%6.87%7.01%0.06%4.22%12.24%25.13%29.44%
Dividend Yield--2.86%2.97%3.21%3.06%2.79%3.20%3.38%3.65%3.37%2.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,005.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,046.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,959.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,401.00875.63525.38
Cash Retained (M)1,959.001,959.001,959.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,401.00-875.63-525.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)558.001,083.381,433.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)541.50541.50541.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.032.002.65
LTM Dividend per Share9.329.329.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.032.002.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.3511.3211.97
WACC / Discount Rate7.26%7.26%7.26%
Growth Rate4.61%5.61%6.61%
Fair Value$408.07$723.19$1,953.71
Upside / Downside44.60%156.27%592.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,005.007,397.827,812.678,250.798,713.479,202.109,478.16
Payout Ratio72.03%75.63%79.22%82.81%86.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,046.005,594.786,189.246,832.787,529.038,281.898,767.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.26%7.26%7.26%
Growth Rate4.61%5.61%6.61%
Year 1 PV (M)5,166.675,216.065,265.45
Year 2 PV (M)5,278.285,379.685,482.04
Year 3 PV (M)5,381.215,537.025,695.80
Year 4 PV (M)5,475.825,688.235,906.75
Year 5 PV (M)5,562.465,833.466,114.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)138,205.03144,938.41151,931.71
Equity Value (M)165,069.47172,592.86180,396.69
Shares Outstanding (M)541.50541.50541.50
Fair Value$304.84$318.73$333.14
Upside / Downside8.02%12.95%18.05%

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