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Definitive Analysis

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AMETEK, Inc. (AME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$172.87 - $575.70$281.98
Multi-Stage$111.10 - $121.47$116.19
Blended Fair Value$199.09
Current Price$188.00
Upside5.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.21%12.38%1.120.990.870.800.710.550.560.360.360.37
YoY Growth--12.35%13.93%9.52%11.85%29.44%-1.10%55.81%-0.64%-3.16%6.75%
Dividend Yield--0.65%0.55%0.60%0.60%0.56%0.76%0.66%0.47%0.66%0.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,468.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)279.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,189.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)293.76183.60110.16
Cash Retained (M)1,189.711,189.711,189.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-293.76-183.60-110.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)895.951,006.111,079.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)231.70231.70231.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.874.344.66
LTM Dividend per Share1.201.201.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.874.344.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.075.555.86
WACC / Discount Rate8.59%8.59%8.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$172.87$281.98$575.70
Upside / Downside-8.05%49.99%206.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,468.801,564.271,665.951,774.231,889.562,012.382,072.75
Payout Ratio19.00%33.20%47.40%61.60%75.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)279.08519.35789.671,092.931,432.291,811.141,917.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.59%8.59%8.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)473.75478.24482.73
Year 2 PV (M)657.10669.61682.25
Year 3 PV (M)829.61853.42877.69
Year 4 PV (M)991.751,029.891,069.12
Year 5 PV (M)1,143.981,199.241,256.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,645.0422,690.5123,775.98
Equity Value (M)25,741.2426,920.9228,144.38
Shares Outstanding (M)231.70231.70231.70
Fair Value$111.10$116.19$121.47
Upside / Downside-40.91%-38.20%-35.39%

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