Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Icape Holding S.A. (ALICA.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.93 - $12.16$9.91
Multi-Stage$17.30 - $19.04$18.16
Blended Fair Value$14.03
Current Price$7.38
Upside90.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.200.200.000.030.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---0.25%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.98%1.53%0.00%0.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)3.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.420.890.53
Cash Retained (M)3.903.903.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.42-0.89-0.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.483.013.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8.128.128.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.700.770.81
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.93$9.91$12.16
Upside / Downside7.47%34.21%64.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7.127.056.986.916.846.776.98
Payout Ratio45.20%54.16%63.12%72.08%81.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.223.824.414.985.556.106.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3.543.583.62
Year 2 PV (M)3.793.873.95
Year 3 PV (M)3.984.104.23
Year 4 PV (M)4.114.284.46
Year 5 PV (M)4.204.414.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)120.84127.13133.68
Equity Value (M)140.47147.38154.58
Shares Outstanding (M)8.128.128.12
Fair Value$17.30$18.16$19.04
Upside / Downside134.48%146.03%158.04%

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