Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Industry

Sector

Air Lease Corporation (AL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$180.21 - $400.04$259.97
Multi-Stage$128.06 - $139.97$133.91
Blended Fair Value$196.94
Current Price$63.65
Upside209.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.01%22.54%0.830.790.740.650.610.520.370.280.180.15
YoY Growth--5.28%6.65%14.04%7.07%17.50%39.61%34.36%50.49%25.30%33.99%
Dividend Yield--1.73%1.55%1.89%1.46%1.24%2.34%1.05%0.65%0.47%0.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,020.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)97.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)923.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)204.08127.5576.53
Cash Retained (M)923.31923.31923.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-204.08-127.55-76.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)719.23795.76846.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)112.13112.13112.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.417.107.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.870.870.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.417.107.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.287.968.42
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$180.21$259.97$400.04
Upside / Downside183.13%308.44%528.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,020.381,086.701,157.341,232.561,312.681,398.001,439.94
Payout Ratio9.51%25.61%41.71%57.81%73.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)97.07278.31482.70712.49970.101,258.201,331.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)251.18253.56255.94
Year 2 PV (M)393.17400.66408.22
Year 3 PV (M)523.76538.79554.11
Year 4 PV (M)643.61668.36693.82
Year 5 PV (M)753.36789.75827.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,794.1312,363.7912,955.25
Equity Value (M)14,359.2015,014.9115,694.87
Shares Outstanding (M)112.13112.13112.13
Fair Value$128.06$133.91$139.97
Upside / Downside101.20%110.39%119.91%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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