Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT AKR Corporindo Tbk (AKRA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10,667.43 - $24,212.42$22,690.58
Multi-Stage$3,715.01 - $4,060.29$3,884.50
Blended Fair Value$13,287.54
Current Price$1,210.00
Upside998.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.26%22.77%99.88124.8541.9526.9719.9936.5744.7030.3618.1725.92
YoY Growth---20.00%197.62%55.56%34.90%-45.33%-18.18%47.20%67.08%-29.88%101.86%
Dividend Yield--9.12%7.30%2.71%2.96%3.10%9.26%4.70%2.68%1.45%1.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,405,838.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,977,629.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)428,208.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)481,167.63300,729.77180,437.86
Cash Retained (M)428,208.68428,208.68428,208.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-481,167.63-300,729.77-180,437.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)-52,958.95127,478.91247,770.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19,760.9819,760.9819,760.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share-2.686.4512.54
LTM Dividend per Share100.08100.08100.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share-2.686.4512.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend97.40106.53112.62
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10,667.43$22,690.58$24,212.42
Upside / Downside781.61%1,775.25%1,901.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,405,838.142,562,217.612,728,761.762,906,131.273,095,029.813,296,206.743,395,092.95
Payout Ratio82.20%83.76%85.32%86.88%88.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,977,629.462,146,139.472,328,200.302,524,861.592,737,252.212,966,586.073,140,460.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,996,921.812,015,849.982,034,778.14
Year 2 PV (M)2,015,703.162,054,096.642,092,852.33
Year 3 PV (M)2,033,981.182,092,369.472,151,864.61
Year 4 PV (M)2,051,763.442,130,668.472,211,827.76
Year 5 PV (M)2,069,057.412,168,993.662,272,754.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)63,244,782.1166,299,528.7369,471,187.70
Equity Value (M)73,412,209.0976,761,506.9380,235,265.24
Shares Outstanding (M)19,760.9819,760.9819,760.98
Fair Value$3,715.01$3,884.50$4,060.29
Upside / Downside207.03%221.03%235.56%

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