Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Apartment Income REIT Corp. (AIRC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - ResidentialSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.74 - $39.25$33.42
Multi-Stage$53.42 - $58.75$56.03
Blended Fair Value$44.73
Current Price$31.78
Upside40.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS1.58%6.42%1.801.881.832.071.661.671.591.471.321.08
YoY Growth---4.11%2.95%-11.60%24.72%-0.64%5.18%8.17%10.82%22.70%11.35%
Dividend Yield--5.68%5.26%3.42%4.84%4.37%4.40%4.18%3.86%3.49%2.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)639.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)264.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)375.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)127.9979.9948.00
Cash Retained (M)375.83375.83375.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-127.99-79.99-48.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)247.84295.83327.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)147.48147.48147.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.682.012.22
LTM Dividend per Share1.791.791.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.682.012.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.473.804.01
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate-3.71%-2.71%-1.71%
Fair Value$27.74$33.42$39.25
Upside / Downside-12.73%5.17%23.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)639.95622.63605.78589.38573.43557.91574.65
Payout Ratio41.27%51.02%60.76%70.51%80.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)264.12317.65368.09415.57460.21502.12531.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate-3.71%-2.71%-1.71%
Year 1 PV (M)290.17293.18296.20
Year 2 PV (M)307.16313.57320.05
Year 3 PV (M)316.77326.74336.92
Year 4 PV (M)320.45333.97347.91
Year 5 PV (M)319.38336.31353.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,324.436,659.727,009.07
Equity Value (M)7,878.368,263.498,664.10
Shares Outstanding (M)147.48147.48147.48
Fair Value$53.42$56.03$58.75
Upside / Downside68.10%76.31%84.86%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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