Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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American International Group, Inc. (AIG-PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.47 - $34.41$30.04
Multi-Stage$51.34 - $56.63$53.93
Blended Fair Value$41.99
Current Price$78.54
Upside-46.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.10%3.48%1.671.671.641.811.841.861.901.962.291.72
YoY Growth--0.50%1.53%-9.33%-1.81%-0.99%-2.11%-2.90%-14.58%33.46%44.38%
Dividend Yield--1.93%2.15%3.26%2.88%3.99%7.68%4.32%3.60%3.67%3.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,259.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)978.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,281.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)651.80407.38244.43
Cash Retained (M)2,281.002,281.002,281.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-651.80-407.38-244.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,629.201,873.632,036.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)598.36598.36598.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.723.133.40
LTM Dividend per Share1.631.631.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.723.133.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.364.775.04
WACC / Discount Rate8.81%8.81%8.81%
Growth Rate-7.08%-6.08%-5.08%
Fair Value$25.47$30.04$34.41
Upside / Downside-67.58%-61.75%-56.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,259.003,060.692,874.452,699.552,535.282,381.012,452.44
Payout Ratio30.01%42.01%54.01%66.00%78.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)978.001,285.721,552.361,781.801,977.572,142.912,268.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.81%8.81%8.81%
Growth Rate-7.08%-6.08%-5.08%
Year 1 PV (M)1,169.001,181.581,194.16
Year 2 PV (M)1,283.311,311.081,339.15
Year 3 PV (M)1,339.261,382.971,427.62
Year 4 PV (M)1,351.471,410.601,471.64
Year 5 PV (M)1,331.521,404.731,481.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,247.1025,580.2926,971.48
Equity Value (M)30,721.6632,271.2433,885.18
Shares Outstanding (M)598.36598.36598.36
Fair Value$51.34$53.93$56.63
Upside / Downside-34.63%-31.33%-27.90%

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