Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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American Equity Investment Life Holding Company (AEL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.58 - $66.21$55.58
Multi-Stage$74.09 - $81.57$77.76
Blended Fair Value$66.67
Current Price$56.47
Upside18.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.540.920.930.780.340.310.290.260.22
YoY Growth---100.00%-40.88%-1.66%20.44%128.44%8.07%9.15%9.65%18.10%19.04%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.97%2.52%2.34%2.46%1.81%1.15%0.98%1.11%1.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)497.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)486.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)99.5762.2337.34
Cash Retained (M)486.92486.92486.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-99.57-62.23-37.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)387.35424.69449.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)80.3880.3880.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.825.285.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.825.285.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.955.425.73
WACC / Discount Rate8.65%8.65%8.65%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$45.58$55.58$66.21
Upside / Downside-19.28%-1.57%17.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)497.84492.86487.93483.05478.22473.44487.65
Payout Ratio2.19%19.75%37.32%54.88%72.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.9297.36182.08265.09346.42426.10451.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.65%8.65%8.65%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)88.7089.6190.51
Year 2 PV (M)151.13154.23157.36
Year 3 PV (M)200.47206.67212.99
Year 4 PV (M)238.67248.57258.76
Year 5 PV (M)267.46281.39295.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,008.965,269.795,541.37
Equity Value (M)5,955.406,250.256,556.89
Shares Outstanding (M)80.3880.3880.38
Fair Value$74.09$77.76$81.57
Upside / Downside31.20%37.70%44.45%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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