Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Aedas Homes, S.A. (AEDAS.MC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Residential ConstructionSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.20 - $37.95$31.23
Multi-Stage$50.58 - $55.62$53.05
Blended Fair Value$42.14
Current Price$25.55
Upside64.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%3.360.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--15.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)129.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)58.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)71.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.9916.259.75
Cash Retained (M)71.6371.6371.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.99-16.25-9.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)45.6455.3861.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)43.7643.7643.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.041.271.41
LTM Dividend per Share1.331.331.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.041.271.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.382.602.75
WACC / Discount Rate7.24%7.24%7.24%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$25.20$31.23$37.95
Upside / Downside-1.35%22.22%48.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)129.97128.67127.38126.11124.85123.60127.31
Payout Ratio44.89%53.91%62.93%71.95%80.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)58.3469.3780.1790.74101.10111.24117.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.24%7.24%7.24%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)64.0364.6865.34
Year 2 PV (M)68.3169.7171.12
Year 3 PV (M)71.3773.5875.83
Year 4 PV (M)73.4076.4479.58
Year 5 PV (M)74.5578.4382.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,861.391,958.312,059.24
Equity Value (M)2,213.042,321.152,433.57
Shares Outstanding (M)43.7643.7643.76
Fair Value$50.58$53.05$55.62
Upside / Downside97.95%107.63%117.68%

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