Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia Tbk (ACES.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$680.72 - $1,236.18$911.77
Multi-Stage$996.44 - $1,091.61$1,043.13
Blended Fair Value$977.45
Current Price$496.00
Upside97.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.47%18.82%33.4831.0420.5832.1318.0528.2322.7316.4115.3415.92
YoY Growth--7.86%50.85%-35.96%77.96%-36.04%24.20%38.49%6.95%-3.59%166.67%
Dividend Yield--6.70%3.41%4.30%3.13%1.18%2.17%1.26%1.23%1.86%1.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)819,151.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)573,533.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)245,618.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)163,830.26102,393.9161,436.35
Cash Retained (M)245,618.26245,618.26245,618.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-163,830.26-102,393.91-61,436.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)81,788.00143,224.34184,181.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)17,131.4917,131.4917,131.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.778.3610.75
LTM Dividend per Share33.4833.4833.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.778.3610.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend38.2541.8444.23
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate1.47%2.47%3.47%
Fair Value$680.72$911.77$1,236.18
Upside / Downside37.24%83.83%149.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)819,151.31839,397.55860,144.19881,403.61903,188.48925,511.78953,277.14
Payout Ratio70.02%74.01%78.01%82.01%86.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)573,533.06621,258.41670,992.57722,805.68776,770.13832,960.61881,781.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate1.47%2.47%3.47%
Year 1 PV (M)574,017.20579,674.13585,331.05
Year 2 PV (M)572,826.33584,172.34595,629.61
Year 3 PV (M)570,137.29587,160.01604,518.24
Year 4 PV (M)566,112.88588,761.05612,082.07
Year 5 PV (M)560,902.81589,091.36618,402.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,226,540.6114,941,505.2115,684,930.01
Equity Value (M)17,070,537.1117,870,364.1018,700,892.99
Shares Outstanding (M)17,131.4917,131.4917,131.49
Fair Value$996.44$1,043.13$1,091.61
Upside / Downside100.90%110.31%120.08%

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