Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Metrics

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Arcosa, Inc. (ACA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.86 - $29.84$25.26
Multi-Stage$31.88 - $35.07$33.44
Blended Fair Value$29.35
Current Price$93.71
Upside-68.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.41%0.00%0.200.200.200.200.200.200.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---1.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%-1.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.26%0.24%0.32%0.35%0.31%0.51%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)148.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)138.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.7218.5811.15
Cash Retained (M)138.70138.70138.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.72-18.58-11.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)108.98120.13127.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)48.9848.9848.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.232.452.60
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.232.452.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.432.652.81
WACC / Discount Rate9.40%9.40%9.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$20.86$25.26$29.84
Upside / Downside-77.74%-73.04%-68.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)148.60147.11145.64144.19142.74141.32145.56
Payout Ratio6.66%23.33%40.00%56.66%73.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.9034.3258.2581.70104.68127.19134.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.40%9.40%9.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)31.0531.3731.69
Year 2 PV (M)47.6948.6749.66
Year 3 PV (M)60.5262.3964.30
Year 4 PV (M)70.1673.0776.06
Year 5 PV (M)77.1381.1485.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,274.861,341.241,410.37
Equity Value (M)1,561.411,637.891,717.40
Shares Outstanding (M)48.9848.9848.98
Fair Value$31.88$33.44$35.07
Upside / Downside-65.98%-64.31%-62.58%

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