Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

AmerisourceBergen Corporation (ABC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DistributionSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$370.39 - $1,586.25$909.18
Multi-Stage$186.17 - $203.68$194.77
Blended Fair Value$551.98
Current Price$187.22
Upside194.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.93%5.58%2.242.140.002.011.881.761.741.711.641.48
YoY Growth--5.03%0.00%-100.00%6.83%6.71%1.36%1.78%3.99%11.02%13.61%
Dividend Yield--1.20%1.14%0.00%1.21%1.42%1.80%2.05%2.30%1.79%1.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,554.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)437.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,117.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)310.83194.27116.56
Cash Retained (M)1,117.091,117.091,117.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-310.83-194.27-116.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)806.25922.821,000.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)194.85194.85194.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.144.745.13
LTM Dividend per Share2.242.242.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.144.745.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.386.987.38
WACC / Discount Rate7.32%7.32%7.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$370.39$909.18$1,586.25
Upside / Downside97.84%385.62%747.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,554.171,655.191,762.781,877.361,999.392,129.352,193.23
Payout Ratio28.12%40.50%52.87%65.25%77.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)437.08670.33932.051,224.961,552.021,916.412,028.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.32%7.32%7.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)618.76624.62630.49
Year 2 PV (M)794.15809.28824.55
Year 3 PV (M)963.43991.081,019.27
Year 4 PV (M)1,126.741,170.081,214.64
Year 5 PV (M)1,284.251,346.281,410.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,488.5233,009.4334,588.54
Equity Value (M)36,275.8537,950.7639,688.17
Shares Outstanding (M)194.85194.85194.85
Fair Value$186.17$194.77$203.68
Upside / Downside-0.56%4.03%8.79%

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