Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

National Petroleum Co., Ltd. (9937.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.14 - $38.26$30.58
Multi-Stage$49.40 - $54.20$51.75
Blended Fair Value$41.17
Current Price$61.80
Upside-33.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.98%5.76%2.102.102.102.312.002.002.002.001.401.20
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-8.70%15.00%0.00%-0.02%0.02%42.86%16.67%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.42%3.18%3.41%4.68%3.97%4.80%4.84%4.93%3.52%3.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)734.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)648.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)85.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)146.9791.8555.11
Cash Retained (M)85.8585.8585.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-146.97-91.85-55.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)-61.12-6.0130.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)308.35308.35308.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.20-0.020.10
LTM Dividend per Share2.102.102.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.20-0.020.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.912.092.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.80%6.80%6.80%
Growth Rate-1.02%-0.02%0.98%
Fair Value$24.14$30.58$38.26
Upside / Downside-60.94%-50.52%-38.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)734.84734.69734.55734.41734.26734.12756.14
Payout Ratio88.32%88.65%88.99%89.33%89.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)648.99651.34653.68656.02658.37660.71699.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.80%6.80%6.80%
Growth Rate-1.02%-0.02%0.98%
Year 1 PV (M)603.78609.88615.98
Year 2 PV (M)561.70573.11584.63
Year 3 PV (M)522.56538.55554.88
Year 4 PV (M)486.13506.07526.63
Year 5 PV (M)452.23475.55499.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,604.7813,254.5013,930.75
Equity Value (M)15,231.1715,957.6616,712.67
Shares Outstanding (M)308.35308.35308.35
Fair Value$49.40$51.75$54.20
Upside / Downside-20.07%-16.26%-12.30%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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