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Definitive Analysis

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Jiumaojiu International Holdings Limited (9922.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.19 - $3.36$2.74
Multi-Stage$4.78 - $5.26$5.01
Blended Fair Value$3.88
Current Price$2.55
Upside51.97%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS45.06%0.00%0.140.010.050.030.040.020.020.010.010.00
YoY Growth--1,405.89%-81.97%45.62%-16.16%93.75%21.21%23.75%122.22%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.21%0.17%0.27%0.31%0.21%0.23%0.19%0.16%0.07%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)347.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)192.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)155.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)69.5543.4726.08
Cash Retained (M)155.07155.07155.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-69.55-43.47-26.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)85.52111.60128.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,421.491,421.491,421.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.210.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.19$2.74$3.36
Upside / Downside-13.95%7.35%31.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)347.75344.27340.83337.42334.05330.70340.63
Payout Ratio55.41%62.33%69.24%76.16%83.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)192.68214.57236.00256.99277.53297.63315.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)198.99201.02203.05
Year 2 PV (M)202.97207.14211.34
Year 3 PV (M)204.97211.31217.78
Year 4 PV (M)205.28213.79222.56
Year 5 PV (M)204.16214.80225.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,777.156,077.986,391.21
Equity Value (M)6,793.537,126.037,471.80
Shares Outstanding (M)1,421.491,421.491,421.49
Fair Value$4.78$5.01$5.26
Upside / Downside87.42%96.59%106.13%

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