Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Industry

Sector

Taiwan Secom Co., Ltd. (9917.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$155.82 - $430.28$241.20
Multi-Stage$165.73 - $181.35$173.39
Blended Fair Value$207.30
Current Price$111.50
Upside85.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.39%4.19%5.285.085.085.084.064.064.053.554.064.06
YoY Growth--4.00%0.00%0.00%25.00%0.00%0.16%14.10%-12.50%0.00%16.00%
Dividend Yield--4.33%4.13%4.81%4.66%4.35%4.96%4.66%3.93%4.51%4.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,924.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,346.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)578.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)584.89365.56219.33
Cash Retained (M)578.23578.23578.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-584.89-365.56-219.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)-6.67212.67358.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)444.50444.50444.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.480.81
LTM Dividend per Share5.285.285.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.480.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.265.766.09
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate3.30%4.30%5.30%
Fair Value$155.82$241.20$430.28
Upside / Downside39.75%116.33%285.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,924.453,050.203,181.363,318.163,460.833,609.653,717.94
Payout Ratio80.23%82.18%84.14%86.09%88.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,346.232,506.732,676.692,856.643,047.113,248.683,439.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate3.30%4.30%5.30%
Year 1 PV (M)2,324.852,347.362,369.86
Year 2 PV (M)2,302.372,347.162,392.38
Year 3 PV (M)2,278.872,345.702,413.82
Year 4 PV (M)2,254.462,343.032,434.19
Year 5 PV (M)2,229.202,339.212,453.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)62,276.9965,350.2968,543.75
Equity Value (M)73,666.7477,072.7580,607.52
Shares Outstanding (M)444.50444.50444.50
Fair Value$165.73$173.39$181.35
Upside / Downside48.64%55.51%62.64%

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