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Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings Limited (9909.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.66 - $13.40$10.86
Multi-Stage$19.49 - $21.47$20.46
Blended Fair Value$15.66
Current Price$2.01
Upside679.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.010.270.390.270.260.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---97.69%-30.21%41.83%5.79%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.28%11.19%6.80%2.32%1.24%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)594.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)176.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)417.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)118.9674.3544.61
Cash Retained (M)417.89417.89417.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-118.96-74.35-44.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)298.93343.54373.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)638.78638.78638.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.470.540.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.470.540.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.740.810.86
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$8.66$10.86$13.40
Upside / Downside331.06%440.43%566.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)594.80588.85582.96577.13571.36565.65582.61
Payout Ratio29.74%41.79%53.85%65.90%77.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)176.91246.10313.90380.31445.37509.08538.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)228.91231.24233.58
Year 2 PV (M)271.57277.14282.76
Year 3 PV (M)306.04315.50325.16
Year 4 PV (M)333.35347.16361.40
Year 5 PV (M)354.42372.87392.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,952.8511,523.1912,117.04
Equity Value (M)12,447.1213,067.1113,712.04
Shares Outstanding (M)638.78638.78638.78
Fair Value$19.49$20.46$21.47
Upside / Downside869.43%917.72%967.95%

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