Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Conexio Corporation (9422.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$841.37 - $1,330.96$1,064.90
Multi-Stage$972.42 - $1,063.47$1,017.10
Blended Fair Value$1,041.00
Current Price$1,908.00
Upside-45.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS6.32%10.22%70.0160.0260.0265.0259.9951.5244.4833.7332.2526.47
YoY Growth--16.65%0.00%-7.70%8.38%16.44%15.83%31.88%4.57%21.88%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.27%4.00%4.22%4.58%3.11%2.67%3.47%2.54%3.64%2.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,616.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,179.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,437.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)723.20452.00271.20
Cash Retained (M)2,437.002,437.002,437.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-723.20-452.00-271.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,713.801,985.002,165.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)44.7444.7444.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share38.3144.3748.41
LTM Dividend per Share26.3526.3526.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share38.3144.3748.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend64.6670.7274.76
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate2.15%3.15%4.15%
Fair Value$841.37$1,064.90$1,330.96
Upside / Downside-55.90%-44.19%-30.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,616.003,729.873,847.323,968.484,093.454,222.354,349.02
Payout Ratio32.61%44.08%55.56%67.04%78.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,179.001,644.282,137.692,660.553,214.213,800.114,022.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate2.15%3.15%4.15%
Year 1 PV (M)1,480.311,494.811,509.30
Year 2 PV (M)1,732.611,766.701,801.13
Year 3 PV (M)1,941.361,998.942,057.64
Year 4 PV (M)2,111.492,195.402,281.78
Year 5 PV (M)2,247.452,359.632,476.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,990.8235,687.5037,451.27
Equity Value (M)43,504.0545,502.9747,577.36
Shares Outstanding (M)44.7444.7444.74
Fair Value$972.42$1,017.10$1,063.47
Upside / Downside-49.03%-46.69%-44.26%

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