Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Mitsubishi Logistics Corporation (9301.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,151.87 - $1,704.45$1,416.10
Multi-Stage$981.55 - $1,067.01$1,023.53
Blended Fair Value$1,219.81
Current Price$1,212.50
Upside0.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS16.66%18.24%31.1321.3418.2615.6314.2014.417.037.285.835.83
YoY Growth--45.90%16.87%16.82%10.04%-1.42%104.88%-3.39%24.96%0.00%-0.05%
Dividend Yield--2.63%2.00%2.57%2.41%2.16%2.59%1.18%1.52%0.97%1.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)48,355.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,739.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)36,616.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9,671.006,044.383,626.63
Cash Retained (M)36,616.0036,616.0036,616.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-9,671.00-6,044.38-3,626.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)26,945.0030,571.6332,989.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)361.02361.02361.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share74.6484.6891.38
LTM Dividend per Share32.5232.5232.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share74.6484.6891.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend107.15117.20123.90
WACC / Discount Rate15.31%15.31%15.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,151.87$1,416.10$1,704.45
Upside / Downside-5.00%16.79%40.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)48,355.0051,498.0854,845.4558,410.4062,207.0866,250.5468,238.06
Payout Ratio24.28%37.42%50.57%63.71%76.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,739.0019,271.2827,733.1637,213.6747,809.4659,625.4963,120.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate15.31%15.31%15.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)16,555.0616,711.9816,868.90
Year 2 PV (M)20,466.3220,856.1521,249.65
Year 3 PV (M)23,591.9124,269.1524,959.22
Year 4 PV (M)26,037.2227,038.5428,068.47
Year 5 PV (M)27,895.4229,242.7830,641.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)239,808.47251,391.31263,417.45
Equity Value (M)354,354.41369,509.91385,205.41
Shares Outstanding (M)361.02361.02361.02
Fair Value$981.55$1,023.53$1,067.01
Upside / Downside-19.05%-15.59%-12.00%

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