Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

ANA Holdings Inc. (9202.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,726.96 - $6,439.92$4,893.88
Multi-Stage$5,773.60 - $6,339.89$6,051.33
Blended Fair Value$5,472.60
Current Price$2,861.00
Upside91.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-1.30%8.43%46.150.000.000.000.0049.2539.4041.2434.3227.42
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%25.00%-4.46%20.17%25.15%33.53%
Dividend Yield--1.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.01%1.09%1.01%0.88%0.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)148,334.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47,042.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)101,292.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29,666.8018,541.7511,125.05
Cash Retained (M)101,292.00101,292.00101,292.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-29,666.80-18,541.75-11,125.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)71,625.2082,750.2590,166.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)509.70509.70509.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share140.52162.35176.90
LTM Dividend per Share92.2992.2992.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share140.52162.35176.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend232.82254.64269.20
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Fair Value$3,726.96$4,893.88$6,439.92
Upside / Downside30.27%71.05%125.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)148,334.00151,027.21153,769.32156,561.21159,403.79162,297.99167,166.93
Payout Ratio31.71%43.37%55.03%66.69%78.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47,042.0065,501.7984,616.39104,403.51124,881.26146,068.19154,629.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Year 1 PV (M)60,551.1861,151.7961,752.41
Year 2 PV (M)72,309.1873,750.7875,206.61
Year 3 PV (M)82,475.2384,953.8987,481.72
Year 4 PV (M)91,195.8694,868.3898,650.71
Year 5 PV (M)98,605.92103,594.32108,782.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,537,668.402,666,046.952,799,569.36
Equity Value (M)2,942,805.783,084,366.113,231,443.39
Shares Outstanding (M)509.70509.70509.70
Fair Value$5,773.60$6,051.33$6,339.89
Upside / Downside101.80%111.51%121.60%

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