Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Taste Gourmet Group Limited (8371.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.42 - $65.56$61.44
Multi-Stage$9.12 - $9.97$9.53
Blended Fair Value$35.49
Current Price$1.90
Upside1,767.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS34.88%0.00%0.130.110.060.080.010.030.040.000.060.00
YoY Growth--25.50%66.35%-21.31%443.43%-50.00%-21.76%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.22%7.42%4.40%7.87%1.29%2.35%4.43%0.00%7.17%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)125.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)67.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)58.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.1815.749.44
Cash Retained (M)58.6158.6158.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.18-15.74-9.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.4342.8749.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)381.91381.91381.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.290.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.42$61.44$65.56
Upside / Downside1,079.84%3,133.56%3,350.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)125.90134.08142.79152.07161.96172.49177.66
Payout Ratio53.44%60.76%68.07%75.38%82.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)67.2881.4697.19114.63133.92155.24164.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)75.6076.3277.03
Year 2 PV (M)83.7185.3186.92
Year 3 PV (M)91.6294.2696.94
Year 4 PV (M)99.34103.16107.09
Year 5 PV (M)106.87112.03117.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,024.053,170.123,321.77
Equity Value (M)3,481.203,641.193,807.14
Shares Outstanding (M)381.91381.91381.91
Fair Value$9.12$9.53$9.97
Upside / Downside379.75%401.80%424.67%

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