Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Li Ning Company Limited (82331.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$157.70 - $448.61$420.42
Multi-Stage$62.83 - $68.73$65.73
Blended Fair Value$243.07
Current Price$15.43
Upside1,475.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS46.40%6.13%0.560.840.460.200.150.080.000.000.010.00
YoY Growth---33.61%82.04%131.89%36.36%75.98%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--3.62%4.73%0.77%0.29%0.33%0.40%0.00%0.00%0.16%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,816.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,934.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,881.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,163.20727.00436.20
Cash Retained (M)2,881.292,881.292,881.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,163.20-727.00-436.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,718.092,154.292,445.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,578.302,578.302,578.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.670.840.95
LTM Dividend per Share1.141.141.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.670.840.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.801.972.09
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$157.70$420.42$448.61
Upside / Downside922.01%2,624.67%2,807.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,816.026,194.066,596.677,025.467,482.117,968.458,207.50
Payout Ratio50.46%58.37%66.28%74.18%82.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,934.733,615.324,371.995,211.756,142.217,171.617,591.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,356.263,388.073,419.88
Year 2 PV (M)3,767.883,839.643,912.09
Year 3 PV (M)4,169.754,289.454,411.41
Year 4 PV (M)4,562.044,737.494,917.94
Year 5 PV (M)4,944.935,183.775,431.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)141,201.66148,021.75155,102.86
Equity Value (M)162,002.51169,460.17177,195.95
Shares Outstanding (M)2,578.302,578.302,578.30
Fair Value$62.83$65.73$68.73
Upside / Downside307.21%325.96%345.40%

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