Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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EXEDY Corporation (7278.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,144.51 - $9,748.64$7,005.67
Multi-Stage$8,236.53 - $9,030.92$8,626.20
Blended Fair Value$7,815.93
Current Price$5,200.00
Upside50.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS10.08%6.18%185.20130.30118.1686.8893.01114.59120.91108.1489.0288.94
YoY Growth--42.14%10.27%36.01%-6.60%-18.83%-5.23%11.81%21.48%0.09%-12.56%
Dividend Yield--4.48%4.31%4.89%5.05%5.71%7.16%5.21%3.15%2.81%4.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,715.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,678.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,037.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,543.001,589.38953.63
Cash Retained (M)3,037.003,037.003,037.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,543.00-1,589.38-953.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)494.001,447.632,083.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)37.8137.8137.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.0638.2855.10
LTM Dividend per Share255.95255.95255.95
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.0638.2855.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend269.01294.23311.05
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate1.24%2.24%3.24%
Fair Value$5,144.51$7,005.67$9,748.64
Upside / Downside-1.07%34.72%87.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,715.0013,000.2613,291.9113,590.1113,895.0014,206.7314,632.93
Payout Ratio76.11%78.89%81.67%84.45%87.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,678.0010,256.1410,855.3611,476.2912,119.6312,786.0513,535.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate1.24%2.24%3.24%
Year 1 PV (M)9,532.639,626.789,720.94
Year 2 PV (M)9,377.809,563.979,751.97
Year 3 PV (M)9,214.839,490.589,771.78
Year 4 PV (M)9,044.899,407.579,781.05
Year 5 PV (M)8,869.099,315.849,780.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)265,402.95278,771.61292,673.64
Equity Value (M)311,442.18326,176.35341,479.78
Shares Outstanding (M)37.8137.8137.81
Fair Value$8,236.53$8,626.20$9,030.92
Upside / Downside58.39%65.89%73.67%

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