Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (7267.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7,034.71 - $29,019.14$18,114.30
Multi-Stage$3,516.15 - $3,844.14$3,677.15
Blended Fair Value$10,895.73
Current Price$1,394.50
Upside681.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS12.06%8.17%77.7254.0547.7042.1032.4243.9843.4138.9336.2535.44
YoY Growth--43.80%13.30%13.31%29.85%-26.27%1.30%11.51%7.41%2.27%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.57%3.07%3.30%3.84%2.74%4.79%4.58%3.59%3.55%4.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)652,983.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)307,347.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)345,636.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)130,596.6081,622.8848,973.73
Cash Retained (M)345,636.00345,636.00345,636.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-130,596.60-81,622.88-48,973.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)215,039.40264,013.13296,662.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,475.054,475.054,475.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share48.0559.0066.29
LTM Dividend per Share68.6868.6868.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share48.0559.0066.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend116.73127.68134.97
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7,034.71$18,114.30$29,019.14
Upside / Downside404.46%1,198.98%1,980.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)652,983.00695,426.90740,629.64788,770.57840,040.66894,643.30921,482.60
Payout Ratio47.07%55.65%64.24%72.83%81.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)307,347.00387,036.49475,787.06574,439.99683,907.59805,178.97852,371.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)357,482.52360,870.98364,259.44
Year 2 PV (M)405,899.41413,630.66421,434.84
Year 3 PV (M)452,640.45465,634.13478,874.13
Year 4 PV (M)497,747.42516,889.38536,578.21
Year 5 PV (M)541,261.22567,404.34594,548.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,479,925.8014,131,011.2614,807,015.29
Equity Value (M)15,734,956.8216,455,440.7417,202,709.92
Shares Outstanding (M)4,475.054,475.054,475.05
Fair Value$3,516.15$3,677.15$3,844.14
Upside / Downside152.14%163.69%175.66%

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