Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Japan Post Insurance Co., Ltd. (7181.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,718.75 - $2,296.20$2,017.03
Multi-Stage$3,877.30 - $4,289.64$4,079.16
Blended Fair Value$3,048.10
Current Price$4,193.00
Upside-27.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-10.08%8.48%100.5694.4395.14160.8456.69171.06108.1395.3988.9865.02
YoY Growth--6.49%-0.75%-40.85%183.72%-66.86%58.20%13.36%7.21%36.85%45.92%
Dividend Yield--3.08%3.00%4.39%7.41%2.76%12.11%5.41%4.19%3.59%3.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)154,447.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37,933.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)116,514.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30,889.4019,305.8811,583.53
Cash Retained (M)116,514.00116,514.00116,514.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-30,889.40-19,305.88-11,583.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)85,624.6097,208.13104,930.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)377.22377.22377.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share226.99257.70278.17
LTM Dividend per Share100.56100.56100.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share226.99257.70278.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend327.55358.26378.73
WACC / Discount Rate8.20%8.20%8.20%
Growth Rate-9.12%-8.12%-7.12%
Fair Value$1,718.75$2,017.03$2,296.20
Upside / Downside-59.01%-51.90%-45.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)154,447.00141,907.64130,386.34119,800.44110,073.99101,137.23104,171.34
Payout Ratio24.56%37.65%50.74%63.82%76.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37,933.0053,425.9966,153.2376,461.6984,660.2391,023.5096,358.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.20%8.20%8.20%
Growth Rate-9.12%-8.12%-7.12%
Year 1 PV (M)48,839.3849,376.7849,914.18
Year 2 PV (M)55,282.3156,505.5957,742.25
Year 3 PV (M)58,411.2660,360.7262,353.08
Year 4 PV (M)59,122.0861,767.5264,500.75
Year 5 PV (M)58,108.7361,376.8364,790.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,182,826.811,249,350.251,318,833.66
Equity Value (M)1,462,590.571,538,737.671,618,134.25
Shares Outstanding (M)377.22377.22377.22
Fair Value$3,877.30$4,079.16$4,289.64
Upside / Downside-7.53%-2.72%2.30%

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