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Changjiu Holdings Limited (6959.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.98 - $19.45$16.05
Multi-Stage$24.98 - $27.49$26.21
Blended Fair Value$21.13
Current Price$5.99
Upside252.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.420.000.000.120.610.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%-80.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--10.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)295.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)79.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)216.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)59.0836.9322.16
Cash Retained (M)216.00216.00216.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-59.08-36.93-22.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)156.92179.08193.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)189.29189.29189.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.830.951.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.830.951.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.251.371.44
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$12.98$16.05$19.45
Upside / Downside116.78%167.95%224.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)295.40292.45289.52286.63283.76280.92289.35
Payout Ratio26.88%39.50%52.13%64.75%77.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)79.40115.52150.92185.59219.56252.83267.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)106.46107.54108.63
Year 2 PV (M)128.16130.78133.44
Year 3 PV (M)145.23149.72154.30
Year 4 PV (M)158.32164.88171.65
Year 5 PV (M)168.00176.75185.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,021.384,230.784,448.82
Equity Value (M)4,727.544,960.465,202.69
Shares Outstanding (M)189.29189.29189.29
Fair Value$24.98$26.21$27.49
Upside / Downside316.95%337.49%358.86%

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