Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Ronds Science & Technology Incorporated Company (688768.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.06 - $59.72$39.88
Multi-Stage$20.76 - $22.66$21.69
Blended Fair Value$30.79
Current Price$46.81
Upside-34.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS36.73%0.00%0.110.340.130.010.050.020.030.050.000.00
YoY Growth---68.20%155.70%1,586.41%-84.03%118.14%-9.75%-49.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.21%1.10%0.14%0.02%0.11%0.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)131.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)93.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.3416.469.88
Cash Retained (M)93.8293.8293.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.34-16.46-9.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)67.4877.3683.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)88.4388.4388.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.760.870.95
LTM Dividend per Share0.430.430.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.760.870.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.191.301.38
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$28.06$39.88$59.72
Upside / Downside-40.06%-14.80%27.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)131.70140.26149.38159.09169.43180.44185.85
Payout Ratio28.76%41.01%53.26%65.50%77.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.8857.5279.55104.21131.73162.40171.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)51.8152.3052.79
Year 2 PV (M)64.5465.7767.01
Year 3 PV (M)76.1578.3480.56
Year 4 PV (M)86.7190.0493.47
Year 5 PV (M)96.28100.93105.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,460.251,530.781,604.01
Equity Value (M)1,835.741,918.162,003.61
Shares Outstanding (M)88.4388.4388.43
Fair Value$20.76$21.69$22.66
Upside / Downside-55.65%-53.66%-51.60%

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