Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hangzhou Alltest Biotech Co., Ltd. (688606.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.70 - $47.92$39.34
Multi-Stage$66.86 - $73.41$70.07
Blended Fair Value$54.71
Current Price$68.95
Upside-20.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%2.916.612.691.350.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---55.99%145.20%100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.97%11.55%3.79%1.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)294.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)233.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)61.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.9536.8422.11
Cash Retained (M)61.5861.5861.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.95-36.84-22.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.6324.7439.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)80.0180.0180.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.310.49
LTM Dividend per Share2.912.912.91
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.310.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.953.223.41
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$31.70$39.34$47.92
Upside / Downside-54.02%-42.94%-30.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)294.76291.81288.89286.00283.14280.31288.72
Payout Ratio79.11%81.29%83.46%85.64%87.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)233.17237.20241.12244.94248.66252.28267.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)219.21221.45223.69
Year 2 PV (M)205.94210.17214.43
Year 3 PV (M)193.34199.32205.42
Year 4 PV (M)181.39188.91196.66
Year 5 PV (M)170.08178.94188.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,379.394,607.434,844.88
Equity Value (M)5,349.365,606.225,873.25
Shares Outstanding (M)80.0180.0180.01
Fair Value$66.86$70.07$73.41
Upside / Downside-3.03%1.63%6.47%

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