Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.,Ltd (688526.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.57 - $88.56$43.35
Multi-Stage$17.52 - $19.14$18.32
Blended Fair Value$30.84
Current Price$17.72
Upside74.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS18.99%0.00%0.430.210.200.290.000.180.260.100.060.00
YoY Growth--110.72%3.86%-31.67%36,981.60%-99.57%-29.87%158.82%57.36%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.77%1.10%0.73%1.15%0.00%0.58%0.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)459.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)199.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)259.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)91.9157.4434.47
Cash Retained (M)259.76259.76259.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-91.91-57.44-34.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)167.85202.31225.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)471.79471.79471.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.430.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.430.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate8.59%8.59%8.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$26.57$43.35$88.56
Upside / Downside49.96%144.66%399.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)459.54489.41521.22555.10591.18629.61648.50
Payout Ratio43.47%52.78%62.08%71.39%80.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)199.78258.31323.60396.29477.06566.65599.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.59%8.59%8.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)235.63237.87240.10
Year 2 PV (M)269.28274.41279.59
Year 3 PV (M)300.82309.45318.25
Year 4 PV (M)330.34343.05356.11
Year 5 PV (M)357.94375.23393.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,774.097,101.297,441.00
Equity Value (M)8,268.118,641.299,028.23
Shares Outstanding (M)471.79471.79471.79
Fair Value$17.52$18.32$19.14
Upside / Downside-1.10%3.36%7.99%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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