Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Kaili Catalyst & New Materials Co.,Ltd. (688269.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.62 - $171.49$61.73
Multi-Stage$18.64 - $20.35$19.48
Blended Fair Value$40.61
Current Price$40.90
Upside-0.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.71%13.44%0.590.740.750.480.450.230.210.170.090.14
YoY Growth---20.19%-1.05%54.64%6.57%96.95%12.33%18.10%87.90%-34.36%-15.87%
Dividend Yield--2.19%2.56%0.99%0.74%0.80%0.41%0.36%0.31%0.16%0.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)111.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)76.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)35.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.3313.968.37
Cash Retained (M)35.3735.3735.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.33-13.96-8.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.0421.4227.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)129.50129.50129.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.170.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.170.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.690.750.80
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$31.62$61.73$171.49
Upside / Downside-22.69%50.94%319.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)111.66118.92126.65134.89143.65152.99157.58
Payout Ratio68.32%72.66%76.99%81.33%85.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)76.2986.4197.51109.70123.06137.69145.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)79.4080.1580.91
Year 2 PV (M)82.3483.9185.49
Year 3 PV (M)85.1287.5790.06
Year 4 PV (M)87.7591.1294.59
Year 5 PV (M)90.2294.5899.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,989.022,085.092,184.84
Equity Value (M)2,413.852,522.412,634.98
Shares Outstanding (M)129.50129.50129.50
Fair Value$18.64$19.48$20.35
Upside / Downside-54.42%-52.37%-50.25%

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