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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Transsion Holdings Co., Ltd. (688036.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$206.92 - $659.61$618.15
Multi-Stage$91.38 - $99.79$95.51
Blended Fair Value$356.83
Current Price$94.20
Upside278.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS80.54%0.00%3.673.431.070.770.490.190.020.690.090.00
YoY Growth--6.95%219.52%39.69%58.33%153.79%926.37%-97.30%672.81%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.05%2.84%1.49%1.13%0.32%0.63%0.05%1.67%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,793.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,450.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)343.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)758.69474.18284.51
Cash Retained (M)343.12343.12343.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-758.69-474.18-284.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)-415.57-131.0658.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,143.741,143.741,143.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.36-0.110.05
LTM Dividend per Share3.023.023.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.36-0.110.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.652.903.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$206.92$618.15$659.61
Upside / Downside119.66%556.21%600.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,793.454,040.024,302.624,582.294,880.145,197.355,353.27
Payout Ratio90.95%90.76%90.57%90.38%90.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,450.333,666.883,897.014,141.564,401.454,677.614,951.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,399.493,431.713,463.93
Year 2 PV (M)3,349.393,413.183,477.58
Year 3 PV (M)3,300.013,394.743,491.26
Year 4 PV (M)3,251.343,376.383,504.99
Year 5 PV (M)3,203.383,358.103,518.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)88,016.3992,267.6196,681.54
Equity Value (M)104,519.99109,241.72114,138.06
Shares Outstanding (M)1,143.741,143.741,143.74
Fair Value$91.38$95.51$99.79
Upside / Downside-2.99%1.39%5.94%

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