Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Haidilao International Holding Ltd. (6862.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$109.35 - $319.80$299.70
Multi-Stage$45.18 - $49.37$47.23
Blended Fair Value$173.47
Current Price$13.59
Upside1,176.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS66.58%0.00%1.120.100.120.020.130.090.090.000.000.00
YoY Growth--996.34%-14.80%600.60%-86.81%48.58%2.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.51%0.81%0.61%0.12%0.26%0.31%0.57%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,707.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,625.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,082.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,741.531,088.45653.07
Cash Retained (M)2,082.352,082.352,082.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,741.53-1,088.45-653.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)340.83993.901,429.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,415.005,415.005,415.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.180.26
LTM Dividend per Share1.221.221.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.180.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.291.411.49
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$109.35$299.70$319.80
Upside / Downside704.66%2,105.31%2,253.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,707.649,273.639,876.4210,518.3911,202.0811,930.2212,288.12
Payout Ratio76.09%78.87%81.65%84.43%87.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,625.287,314.008,064.258,881.139,770.1410,737.2011,366.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)6,787.756,852.096,916.43
Year 2 PV (M)6,945.547,077.837,211.38
Year 3 PV (M)7,098.757,302.537,510.17
Year 4 PV (M)7,247.457,526.177,812.84
Year 5 PV (M)7,391.737,748.768,119.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)209,161.28219,263.85229,753.06
Equity Value (M)244,632.50255,771.22267,323.33
Shares Outstanding (M)5,415.005,415.005,415.00
Fair Value$45.18$47.23$49.37
Upside / Downside232.43%247.56%263.26%

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