Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Nihon Kohden Corporation (6849.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,418.50 - $2,431.89$1,856.63
Multi-Stage$1,629.50 - $1,784.27$1,705.44
Blended Fair Value$1,781.04
Current Price$1,690.50
Upside5.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.35%4.44%31.1236.4234.9829.5518.1818.1818.2018.2818.2918.47
YoY Growth---14.54%4.10%18.40%62.54%-0.03%-0.10%-0.43%-0.03%-0.99%-8.33%
Dividend Yield--1.81%1.58%1.82%2.13%1.15%1.00%1.23%1.19%1.41%1.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)18,159.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,107.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,052.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,631.802,269.881,361.93
Cash Retained (M)13,052.0013,052.0013,052.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,631.80-2,269.88-1,361.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,420.2010,782.1311,690.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)163.88163.88163.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share57.4865.7971.33
LTM Dividend per Share31.1631.1631.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share57.4865.7971.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend88.6596.96102.50
WACC / Discount Rate8.84%8.84%8.84%
Growth Rate2.44%3.44%4.44%
Fair Value$1,418.50$1,856.63$2,431.89
Upside / Downside-16.09%9.83%43.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)18,159.0018,784.2119,430.9520,099.9620,792.0021,507.8722,153.10
Payout Ratio28.12%40.50%52.87%65.25%77.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,107.007,607.4310,273.9813,115.1316,139.7419,357.0820,491.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.84%8.84%8.84%
Growth Rate2.44%3.44%4.44%
Year 1 PV (M)6,921.676,989.237,056.80
Year 2 PV (M)8,505.208,672.058,840.53
Year 3 PV (M)9,878.5010,170.6310,468.45
Year 4 PV (M)11,060.8411,499.0911,950.23
Year 5 PV (M)12,069.9212,670.6413,295.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)218,605.07229,485.02240,793.90
Equity Value (M)267,041.20279,486.65292,404.96
Shares Outstanding (M)163.88163.88163.88
Fair Value$1,629.50$1,705.44$1,784.27
Upside / Downside-3.61%0.88%5.55%

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