Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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San Neng Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (6671.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.41 - $37.76$30.60
Multi-Stage$57.77 - $63.46$60.56
Blended Fair Value$45.58
Current Price$36.85
Upside23.69%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.87%0.00%2.481.982.972.972.973.023.483.754.734.10
YoY Growth--25.00%-33.33%0.00%0.00%-1.48%-13.26%-7.17%-20.79%15.42%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.87%4.57%7.47%6.12%6.40%8.77%7.10%7.28%9.19%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)160.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)152.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32.1520.1012.06
Cash Retained (M)8.648.648.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-32.15-20.10-12.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)-23.52-11.46-3.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)61.2861.2861.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.38-0.19-0.06
LTM Dividend per Share2.482.482.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.38-0.19-0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.102.302.43
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$24.41$30.60$37.76
Upside / Downside-33.77%-16.96%2.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)160.77159.16157.57156.00154.44152.89157.48
Payout Ratio94.63%93.70%92.78%91.85%90.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)152.14149.14146.19143.29140.42137.60145.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)138.72140.13141.55
Year 2 PV (M)126.47129.07131.69
Year 3 PV (M)115.30118.86122.50
Year 4 PV (M)105.10109.45113.94
Year 5 PV (M)95.79100.78105.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,958.953,113.033,273.46
Equity Value (M)3,540.333,711.333,889.12
Shares Outstanding (M)61.2861.2861.28
Fair Value$57.77$60.56$63.46
Upside / Downside56.77%64.35%72.22%

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