Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Cheerwin Group Limited (6601.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.90 - $4.48$3.63
Multi-Stage$6.67 - $7.34$7.00
Blended Fair Value$5.32
Current Price$2.55
Upside108.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-6.60%0.00%0.120.060.070.040.190.170.160.000.000.00
YoY Growth--86.98%-12.62%63.86%-76.41%12.55%0.93%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.97%4.85%4.45%1.74%2.78%2.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)415.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)241.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)174.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)83.0951.9331.16
Cash Retained (M)174.39174.39174.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-83.09-51.93-31.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)91.30122.46143.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,333.331,333.331,333.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.90$3.63$4.48
Upside / Downside13.69%42.53%75.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)415.46411.30407.19403.12399.08395.09406.95
Payout Ratio58.02%64.42%70.81%77.21%83.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)241.07264.96288.35311.24333.65355.58376.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)246.44248.96251.47
Year 2 PV (M)249.46254.58259.75
Year 3 PV (M)250.45258.20266.10
Year 4 PV (M)249.72260.07270.74
Year 5 PV (M)247.54260.43273.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,647.748,045.978,460.63
Equity Value (M)8,891.369,328.219,782.54
Shares Outstanding (M)1,333.331,333.331,333.33
Fair Value$6.67$7.00$7.34
Upside / Downside161.51%174.36%187.72%

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