Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Mars Group Holdings Corporation (6419.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Gambling, Resorts & CasinosSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17,908.14 - $77,975.36$43,093.39
Multi-Stage$9,247.13 - $10,107.56$9,669.51
Blended Fair Value$26,381.45
Current Price$3,070.00
Upside759.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS23.25%12.18%207.1588.1163.4763.7463.3372.8372.3862.9559.1356.38
YoY Growth--135.09%38.82%-0.42%0.64%-13.05%0.63%14.98%6.47%4.87%-14.11%
Dividend Yield--7.17%2.28%2.23%3.85%3.89%4.47%3.58%2.41%2.39%2.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,231.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,592.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,639.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,446.34903.96542.38
Cash Retained (M)3,639.303,639.303,639.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,446.34-903.96-542.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,192.972,735.343,096.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.4418.4418.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share118.90148.30167.91
LTM Dividend per Share194.77194.77194.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share118.90148.30167.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend313.67343.07362.68
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17,908.14$43,093.39$77,975.36
Upside / Downside483.33%1,303.69%2,439.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,231.687,701.748,202.358,735.519,303.319,908.0310,205.27
Payout Ratio49.68%57.74%65.81%73.87%81.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,592.384,447.025,397.596,452.947,622.688,917.239,439.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,103.734,142.634,181.52
Year 2 PV (M)4,596.414,683.964,772.33
Year 3 PV (M)5,070.915,216.485,364.80
Year 4 PV (M)5,527.715,740.295,958.95
Year 5 PV (M)5,967.296,255.516,554.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)145,290.77152,308.36159,594.54
Equity Value (M)170,556.82178,347.23186,426.92
Shares Outstanding (M)18.4418.4418.44
Fair Value$9,247.13$9,669.51$10,107.56
Upside / Downside201.21%214.97%229.24%

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