Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Yuken Kogyo Co., Ltd. (6393.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,647.39 - $15,476.42$9,747.63
Multi-Stage$8,331.20 - $9,136.76$8,726.39
Blended Fair Value$9,237.01
Current Price$2,925.00
Upside215.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.44%4.49%107.44108.2196.3287.0186.5386.4887.3578.6089.0879.23
YoY Growth---0.72%12.35%10.69%0.56%0.06%-1.00%11.13%-11.76%12.43%14.40%
Dividend Yield--4.08%4.50%4.71%5.03%4.96%5.96%5.20%3.12%3.92%4.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,241.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)566.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)675.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)248.38155.2493.14
Cash Retained (M)675.58675.58675.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-248.38-155.24-93.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)427.20520.35582.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3.783.783.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share112.99137.62154.04
LTM Dividend per Share149.78149.78149.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share112.99137.62154.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend262.76287.40303.82
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate2.49%3.49%4.49%
Fair Value$6,647.39$9,747.63$15,476.42
Upside / Downside127.26%233.25%429.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,241.891,285.201,330.031,376.431,424.441,474.131,518.35
Payout Ratio45.60%54.48%63.36%72.24%81.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)566.30700.18842.71994.331,155.511,326.711,404.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate2.49%3.49%4.49%
Year 1 PV (M)650.86657.21663.56
Year 2 PV (M)728.16742.44756.85
Year 3 PV (M)798.64822.25846.31
Year 4 PV (M)862.71896.88932.05
Year 5 PV (M)920.75966.561,014.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,539.2928,909.3030,333.30
Equity Value (M)31,500.4032,994.6234,546.24
Shares Outstanding (M)3.783.783.78
Fair Value$8,331.20$8,726.39$9,136.76
Upside / Downside184.83%198.34%212.37%

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