Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Forest Packaging Group Co.,Ltd. (605500.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.80 - $2.71$2.23
Multi-Stage$3.79 - $4.16$3.98
Blended Fair Value$3.10
Current Price$9.13
Upside-66.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.15%0.00%0.180.110.210.170.110.160.170.190.060.00
YoY Growth--64.52%-47.95%22.21%52.02%-30.10%-7.75%-7.43%228.74%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.52%1.50%2.77%2.15%1.17%1.20%1.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)88.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)78.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.6411.036.62
Cash Retained (M)9.509.509.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.64-11.03-6.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)-8.14-1.532.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)418.24418.24418.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.180.20
WACC / Discount Rate7.19%7.19%7.19%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.80$2.23$2.71
Upside / Downside-80.29%-75.56%-70.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)88.2087.3286.4585.5884.7383.8886.40
Payout Ratio89.23%89.38%89.54%89.69%89.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)78.7078.0577.4076.7676.1275.4979.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.19%7.19%7.19%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)72.0872.8273.55
Year 2 PV (M)66.0267.3768.74
Year 3 PV (M)60.4662.3364.24
Year 4 PV (M)55.3857.6760.04
Year 5 PV (M)50.7253.3656.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,282.541,349.331,418.86
Equity Value (M)1,587.201,662.881,741.55
Shares Outstanding (M)418.24418.24418.24
Fair Value$3.79$3.98$4.16
Upside / Downside-58.43%-56.45%-54.39%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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