Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Ningbo Shimao Energy Co.,Ltd (605028.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.93 - $69.86$38.76
Multi-Stage$21.22 - $23.17$22.17
Blended Fair Value$30.46
Current Price$30.79
Upside-1.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS80.19%0.00%0.600.300.500.500.020.030.300.100.100.00
YoY Growth--100.00%-40.00%0.00%2,632.52%-42.08%-89.42%201.12%1.75%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.62%1.87%2.83%2.60%0.09%0.16%1.47%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)164.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)127.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)36.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32.8820.5512.33
Cash Retained (M)36.6536.6536.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-32.88-20.55-12.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.7716.1024.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)159.58159.58159.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.100.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.800.800.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.100.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.820.900.95
WACC / Discount Rate7.84%7.84%7.84%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Fair Value$24.93$38.76$69.86
Upside / Downside-19.04%25.87%126.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)164.40173.25182.58192.42202.78213.70220.11
Payout Ratio77.70%80.16%82.62%85.08%87.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)127.74138.88150.85163.71177.52192.33203.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.84%7.84%7.84%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Year 1 PV (M)127.57128.79130.01
Year 2 PV (M)127.27129.72132.20
Year 3 PV (M)126.87130.55134.30
Year 4 PV (M)126.36131.27136.32
Year 5 PV (M)125.75131.89138.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,751.882,886.243,025.80
Equity Value (M)3,385.693,538.463,696.90
Shares Outstanding (M)159.58159.58159.58
Fair Value$21.22$22.17$23.17
Upside / Downside-31.09%-27.98%-24.76%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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