Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Olympic Circuit Technology Co., Ltd (603920.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.83 - $46.62$31.07
Multi-Stage$16.66 - $18.15$17.39
Blended Fair Value$24.23
Current Price$45.59
Upside-46.85%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.98%24.88%0.490.470.470.350.290.260.270.010.190.19
YoY Growth--4.05%-0.24%32.33%20.04%11.66%-0.64%3,444.33%-96.10%3.59%252.73%
Dividend Yield--1.63%2.51%2.55%2.09%2.29%1.88%2.41%0.06%1.15%1.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)816.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)436.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)380.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)163.40102.1261.27
Cash Retained (M)380.76380.76380.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-163.40-102.12-61.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)217.36278.63319.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)707.85707.85707.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.390.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.390.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.921.011.07
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$21.83$31.07$46.62
Upside / Downside-52.11%-31.85%2.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)816.99870.10926.65986.891,051.041,119.351,152.93
Payout Ratio53.40%60.72%68.04%75.36%82.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)436.24528.29630.47743.70868.991,007.421,066.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)475.92480.43484.94
Year 2 PV (M)511.66521.41531.25
Year 3 PV (M)543.72559.33575.24
Year 4 PV (M)572.34594.35616.99
Year 5 PV (M)597.74626.61656.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,088.879,527.869,983.66
Equity Value (M)11,790.2512,309.9912,848.65
Shares Outstanding (M)707.85707.85707.85
Fair Value$16.66$17.39$18.15
Upside / Downside-63.46%-61.85%-60.18%

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