Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Nancal Technology Co.,Ltd (603859.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.00 - $41.52$27.26
Multi-Stage$14.11 - $15.39$14.74
Blended Fair Value$21.00
Current Price$48.11
Upside-56.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.74%2.02%0.080.010.080.020.050.030.030.090.000.07
YoY Growth--509.23%-81.68%267.48%-54.99%33.31%24.00%-70.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.26%0.05%0.24%0.10%0.21%0.18%0.15%0.62%0.00%0.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)239.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)93.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)145.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)47.8429.9017.94
Cash Retained (M)145.83145.83145.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-47.84-29.90-17.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)97.99115.93127.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)244.84244.84244.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.470.52
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.470.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.00$27.26$41.52
Upside / Downside-60.51%-43.34%-13.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)239.19254.73271.29288.93307.71327.71337.54
Payout Ratio39.03%49.23%59.42%69.61%79.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)93.36125.40161.20201.13245.57294.94312.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)113.09114.16115.24
Year 2 PV (M)131.12133.61136.13
Year 3 PV (M)147.54151.78156.09
Year 4 PV (M)162.46168.71175.14
Year 5 PV (M)175.97184.47193.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,723.702,855.262,991.85
Equity Value (M)3,453.883,607.993,767.74
Shares Outstanding (M)244.84244.84244.84
Fair Value$14.11$14.74$15.39
Upside / Downside-70.68%-69.37%-68.01%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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