Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Zbom Home Collection Co.,Ltd (603801.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$60.31 - $134.22$125.78
Multi-Stage$20.87 - $22.80$21.82
Blended Fair Value$73.80
Current Price$9.31
Upside692.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.35%36.84%0.740.530.470.460.360.320.220.120.080.09
YoY Growth--38.05%13.48%3.03%26.65%13.61%43.05%90.48%50.00%-11.84%175.19%
Dividend Yield--6.25%3.17%2.05%2.52%1.22%3.05%1.44%0.48%0.63%0.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)292.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)275.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)16.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.4836.5521.93
Cash Retained (M)16.6816.6816.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.48-36.55-21.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)-41.80-19.87-5.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)433.26433.26433.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.10-0.05-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.640.640.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.10-0.05-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.62
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$60.31$125.78$134.22
Upside / Downside547.76%1,251.05%1,341.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)292.40311.41331.65353.21376.17400.62412.64
Payout Ratio94.30%93.44%92.58%91.72%90.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)275.73290.97307.04323.96341.78360.56381.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)270.79273.36275.92
Year 2 PV (M)265.92270.98276.10
Year 3 PV (M)261.11268.61276.25
Year 4 PV (M)256.37266.23276.37
Year 5 PV (M)251.69263.85276.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,735.328,108.948,496.86
Equity Value (M)9,041.209,451.969,877.96
Shares Outstanding (M)433.26433.26433.26
Fair Value$20.87$21.82$22.80
Upside / Downside124.14%134.33%144.89%

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