Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Autobio Diagnostics Co., Ltd. (603658.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Diagnostics & ResearchSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$85.20 - $381.12$198.78
Multi-Stage$45.27 - $49.45$47.32
Blended Fair Value$123.05
Current Price$39.20
Upside213.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.47%29.22%1.090.840.770.690.690.600.530.740.010.11
YoY Growth--30.11%9.16%11.17%0.36%13.59%13.20%-27.99%11,185.78%-94.23%35.91%
Dividend Yield--2.61%1.45%1.26%1.43%0.81%0.67%1.04%1.78%0.02%0.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,097.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)728.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)369.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)219.56137.2282.33
Cash Retained (M)369.59369.59369.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-219.56-137.22-82.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)150.04232.37287.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)572.85572.85572.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.410.50
LTM Dividend per Share1.271.271.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.410.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.531.681.77
WACC / Discount Rate7.40%7.40%7.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$85.20$198.78$381.12
Upside / Downside117.35%407.09%872.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,097.791,169.151,245.141,326.081,412.271,504.071,549.19
Payout Ratio66.33%71.07%75.80%80.53%85.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)728.20830.87943.821,067.931,204.201,353.661,433.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.40%7.40%7.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)766.37773.64780.90
Year 2 PV (M)802.97818.26833.70
Year 3 PV (M)838.03862.09886.60
Year 4 PV (M)871.60905.12939.60
Year 5 PV (M)903.72947.37992.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,750.9622,801.5423,892.33
Equity Value (M)25,933.6627,108.0228,325.82
Shares Outstanding (M)572.85572.85572.85
Fair Value$45.27$47.32$49.45
Upside / Downside15.49%20.72%26.14%

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