Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co., Ltd. (603599.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.21 - $67.72$34.21
Multi-Stage$14.00 - $15.29$14.63
Blended Fair Value$24.42
Current Price$11.91
Upside105.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS47.08%0.00%0.620.710.720.220.000.090.070.040.030.00
YoY Growth---13.90%-1.42%230.13%29,669.26%-99.17%28.63%91.55%40.36%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.26%5.01%3.08%1.35%0.00%1.12%0.82%0.46%0.30%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)724.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)253.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)471.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)145.0090.6254.37
Cash Retained (M)471.08471.08471.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-145.00-90.62-54.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)326.08380.46416.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)910.27910.27910.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.420.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.420.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.640.700.74
WACC / Discount Rate8.67%8.67%8.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$21.21$34.21$67.72
Upside / Downside78.08%187.24%468.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)724.99772.11822.30875.75932.67993.301,023.10
Payout Ratio35.02%46.02%57.01%68.01%79.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)253.91355.31468.82595.59736.86893.97946.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.67%8.67%8.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)323.90326.97330.04
Year 2 PV (M)389.58397.00404.49
Year 3 PV (M)451.16464.11477.31
Year 4 PV (M)508.82528.39548.51
Year 5 PV (M)562.73589.91618.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,507.3211,014.8211,541.76
Equity Value (M)12,743.5013,321.2013,920.24
Shares Outstanding (M)910.27910.27910.27
Fair Value$14.00$14.63$15.29
Upside / Downside17.55%22.87%28.40%

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