Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Zhonggu Logistics Co., Ltd. (603565.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$84.60 - $202.33$189.62
Multi-Stage$30.68 - $33.52$32.08
Blended Fair Value$110.85
Current Price$10.89
Upside917.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS63.43%73.83%0.840.151.500.290.100.070.050.250.000.06
YoY Growth--462.95%-90.06%423.48%200.00%32.68%45.32%-80.48%6,472.66%-93.56%1,699.48%
Dividend Yield--8.76%1.65%12.97%2.35%0.84%0.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,137.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,864.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)272.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)427.42267.14160.28
Cash Retained (M)272.86272.86272.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-427.42-267.14-160.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)-154.565.72112.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,100.572,100.572,100.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.070.000.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.890.890.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.070.000.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.810.890.94
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$84.60$189.62$202.33
Upside / Downside676.85%1,641.19%1,757.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,137.092,276.002,423.942,581.502,749.302,928.003,015.84
Payout Ratio87.23%87.79%88.34%88.89%89.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,864.241,998.012,141.302,294.772,459.152,635.202,789.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,858.191,875.801,893.41
Year 2 PV (M)1,852.091,887.361,922.97
Year 3 PV (M)1,845.931,898.921,952.92
Year 4 PV (M)1,839.731,910.481,983.25
Year 5 PV (M)1,833.471,922.032,013.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)55,218.6257,885.7060,654.86
Equity Value (M)64,448.0367,380.3070,421.39
Shares Outstanding (M)2,100.572,100.572,100.57
Fair Value$30.68$32.08$33.52
Upside / Downside181.74%194.56%207.85%

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