Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Anhui Zhongyuan New Materials Co., Ltd. (603527.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$72.55 - $85.48$80.10
Multi-Stage$25.87 - $28.36$27.09
Blended Fair Value$53.60
Current Price$11.56
Upside363.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.70%-1.61%0.260.270.230.150.150.140.130.100.090.05
YoY Growth---4.88%18.60%50.71%-0.28%12.10%5.40%33.62%9.81%94.07%-85.09%
Dividend Yield--2.60%2.51%1.68%1.34%2.02%1.46%1.40%0.74%0.90%0.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)135.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)82.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)53.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.1416.9710.18
Cash Retained (M)53.3153.3153.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.14-16.97-10.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.1636.3443.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)315.78315.78315.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate4.76%4.76%4.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$72.55$80.10$85.48
Upside / Downside527.59%592.94%639.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)135.72144.54153.94163.94174.60185.95191.53
Payout Ratio60.72%66.58%72.43%78.29%84.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)82.4196.23111.50128.35146.92167.35177.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.76%4.76%4.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)91.0091.8692.73
Year 2 PV (M)99.71101.61103.52
Year 3 PV (M)108.53111.65114.82
Year 4 PV (M)117.48122.00126.64
Year 5 PV (M)126.55132.66139.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,626.937,995.318,377.79
Equity Value (M)8,170.198,555.088,954.51
Shares Outstanding (M)315.78315.78315.78
Fair Value$25.87$27.09$28.36
Upside / Downside123.82%134.36%145.30%

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