Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company

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Industry

Sector

Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co., Ltd. (603396.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.57 - $19.30$11.43
Multi-Stage$5.55 - $6.04$5.79
Blended Fair Value$8.61
Current Price$28.09
Upside-69.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.19%0.00%0.350.140.130.180.140.190.170.000.030.03
YoY Growth--141.99%6.25%-26.89%33.33%-25.88%9.68%0.00%-100.00%-6.60%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.34%0.35%0.19%0.29%0.44%1.00%0.53%0.00%0.15%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)45.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)12.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.195.743.45
Cash Retained (M)12.1212.1212.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.19-5.74-3.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.936.388.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)137.91137.91137.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate9.22%9.22%9.22%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.57$11.43$19.30
Upside / Downside-73.06%-59.31%-31.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)45.9548.9352.1155.5059.1162.9564.84
Payout Ratio73.62%76.90%80.17%83.45%86.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.8337.6341.7846.3151.2656.6559.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.22%9.22%9.22%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)34.1334.4534.78
Year 2 PV (M)34.3735.0335.69
Year 3 PV (M)34.5635.5536.56
Year 4 PV (M)34.6936.0337.40
Year 5 PV (M)34.7836.4638.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)592.27620.88650.58
Equity Value (M)764.80798.39833.21
Shares Outstanding (M)137.91137.91137.91
Fair Value$5.55$5.79$6.04
Upside / Downside-80.26%-79.39%-78.49%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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