Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Nerin Engineering Co Ltd (603257.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.35 - $11.83$10.07
Multi-Stage$13.43 - $14.69$14.04
Blended Fair Value$12.06
Current Price$63.56
Upside-81.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.560.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)134.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)89.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)45.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.9716.8610.11
Cash Retained (M)45.4345.4345.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.97-16.86-10.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.4628.5735.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)105.74105.74105.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.270.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.270.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.021.121.18
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$8.35$10.07$11.83
Upside / Downside-86.86%-84.16%-81.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)134.85133.50132.16130.84129.53128.24132.08
Payout Ratio66.31%71.05%75.79%80.52%85.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)89.4294.85100.16105.36110.44115.41122.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)85.3786.2587.12
Year 2 PV (M)81.1582.8284.50
Year 3 PV (M)76.8479.2281.64
Year 4 PV (M)72.5075.5178.61
Year 5 PV (M)68.2071.7575.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,035.491,089.421,145.56
Equity Value (M)1,419.571,484.961,552.87
Shares Outstanding (M)105.74105.74105.74
Fair Value$13.43$14.04$14.69
Upside / Downside-78.88%-77.90%-76.89%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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