Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Design Group Co., Ltd. (603018.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$81.19 - $95.66$89.65
Multi-Stage$60.28 - $66.16$63.16
Blended Fair Value$76.41
Current Price$7.71
Upside890.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.42%15.57%0.320.270.270.230.190.210.160.110.090.07
YoY Growth--18.53%-1.95%17.84%22.40%-10.60%31.12%46.65%25.27%32.97%-11.45%
Dividend Yield--3.87%3.07%2.96%2.71%1.90%2.20%1.63%1.25%0.75%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)336.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)79.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)256.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.2542.0325.22
Cash Retained (M)256.75256.75256.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.25-42.03-25.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)189.50214.72231.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)699.05699.05699.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.310.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.310.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.420.44
WACC / Discount Rate0.48%0.48%0.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$81.19$89.65$95.66
Upside / Downside953.09%1,062.73%1,140.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)336.24358.10381.38406.17432.57460.68474.50
Payout Ratio23.64%36.91%50.18%63.46%76.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)79.49132.19191.39257.74331.90414.62438.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.48%0.48%0.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)130.32131.55132.79
Year 2 PV (M)186.02189.56193.14
Year 3 PV (M)246.96254.05261.27
Year 4 PV (M)313.52325.58337.98
Year 5 PV (M)386.12404.77424.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,874.9642,849.2344,899.07
Equity Value (M)42,137.8944,154.7446,248.38
Shares Outstanding (M)699.05699.05699.05
Fair Value$60.28$63.16$66.16
Upside / Downside681.83%719.25%758.09%

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